E-commerce alcohol sales: Is the party over, or is a comeback brewing? While online sales of alcoholic beverages have stumbled in recent years, don't count them out just yet! The data suggests a resilient spirit, poised for a potential resurgence.
According to IWSR's Ecommerce Strategic Study 2025, covering over 85% of global e-commerce value in the sector, the value of beverage alcohol sold online experienced a decline for the third consecutive year in 2024, dropping by roughly 1%. This dip was largely attributed to decreased sales in major markets like China and the US. But here's where it gets controversial... some argue that this isn't just about a temporary economic downturn but a fundamental shift in consumer behavior post-pandemic. What do you think?
These declines in China and the US stem from lower overall alcohol sales, which in turn are linked to macroeconomic weakness and uncertainty. Think of it like this: when people are worried about their jobs or the economy, they might cut back on discretionary spending, including that fancy bottle of wine they were going to order online. And this is the part most people miss... this decline isn't uniform. Some segments, like premium spirits, might be holding up better than others, offering a glimmer of hope for the future.
Despite these challenges, e-commerce's share of the total beverage alcohol market remained relatively stable at 3.5%. IWSR is predicting that this share will be maintained in 2025 before modest growth returns, eventually reaching 3.8% by 2029. This relative stability is noteworthy because it follows a period of extreme volatility. We saw explosive growth during the COVID-19 pandemic (a whopping +35% compound annual growth rate from 2019 to 2021), followed by a significant correction (a -5% CAGR from 2022 to 2023). For the period between 2024 and 2029, IWSR forecasts a more moderate CAGR of +3%.
Guy Wolfe, head of e-commerce insights at IWSR, explains, "After two years of correction as channel dynamics normalised in the wake of the pandemic, e-commerce alcohol sales have stabilised and are set to return to modest growth over the forecast period." He also points out that consumer research indicates a slight dip in online usage in 2025, but it's less pronounced than the decline in physical stores, suggesting that the digital channel is proving more resilient. In essence, even though people might be buying alcohol online slightly less often, the digital channel is still performing better than physical brick and mortar stores.
Frequency of online alcohol purchases remains stable in most markets (China being an exception), and the average order value and total basket spend are still significantly higher online than offline. This means that while people may not be buying online as often, when they do, they tend to spend more. As such, online growth is still expected to outperform the wider market, gaining a modest share of total alcohol sales and the off-trade (retail) market in the coming years. This suggests that e-commerce could become an increasingly important sales channel for beverage alcohol companies moving forward.
Looking ahead, established markets like China, Brazil, and the US are projected to drive more than half of the total online alcohol value growth between 2024 and 2029. This is likely because consumers in these markets have already embraced e-commerce and are more comfortable buying alcohol online. The positive consumer attitudes toward online shopping in these mature markets are a key factor in predicting future growth.
So, what's the takeaway? While the e-commerce alcohol market has faced some headwinds, it's showing signs of resilience and is expected to return to modest growth in the coming years. The future of online alcohol sales depends on various factors, including economic conditions, consumer behavior, and the ability of retailers and brands to adapt to the evolving digital landscape. What's your take? Do you think e-commerce alcohol sales will bounce back strongly, or will they continue to struggle? Share your thoughts in the comments below!
